Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 February 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 FEB 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NUMEROUS B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED, FOUR OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH SUBFLARES FROM REGION 8156 (S24E43). REGION 8156 CONTINUED TO DISPLAY MINOR GROWTH IN SPOT COUNT AND FIELD INTENSITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8156 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING 12/0000-0300UT AND 12/1100-1300UTWITH THE MINOR STORM LEVELS LIMITED TO HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 12/1722UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 FEB to 15 FEB
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 FEB 091
  Predicted   13 FEB-15 FEB  094/094/094
  90 Day Mean        12 FEB 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB  010/010-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 FEB to 15 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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