Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 March 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW FLUX EMERGENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF REGIONS 8178 (S16E59) AND 8179 (S23E50). THIS COMPLEX MAY PROVE TO CONSIST OF MORE THAN TWO GROUPS, BUT THAT DETERMINATION AWAITS FURTHER ANALYSIS AFFECTED BY LESS FORESHORTENING TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLARE ACTIVITY OCCURRED, AND THE LIMBS WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD PERSISTED AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY BEGAN YESTERDAY NEAR 0900Z AND IS NOW WANING. CONSTANT SOLAR WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 500 KM/S OCCURRED DURING THE ENTIRE INTERVAL. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT 1458Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY, AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. EPISODES OF SUBSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE LAST 2 DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 MAR 101
  Predicted   12 MAR-14 MAR  105/110/115
  90 Day Mean        11 MAR 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  026/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  025/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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