Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, NONE OF WHICH HAD CORRESPONDING OPTICAL REPORTS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C1 AT 07/0110Z. FOUR NEW ACTIVE REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: REGION 8196 (N18W61) EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLAR GROUP; REGION 8197 (N32E48) LIKEWISE EMERGED AS A SMALL BIPOLE; 8198 (S28E74) ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AS PART OF THE 8194/8195 ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX; AND 8199 (S26W02) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF REGION 8193 (S23E02).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS OF POTENTIAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY ARE THE 8193/8199 AREA AND THE COMPLEX COMPRISED OF REGIONS 8194, 8195, AND 8198.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A SHOCK OBSERVED BY ACE SENSORS AT ABOUT 07/1650Z WAS FOLLOWD BY A SUDDEN IMPULSE RESPONSE DETECTED IN GOES AND GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS AT ABOUT 07/1750Z. THE FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED SINCE THE SHOCK.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 08 APR to 10 APR
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 APR 135
  Predicted   08 APR-10 APR  138/140/142
  90 Day Mean        07 APR 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR  010/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 APR to 10 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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