Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 April 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 APR 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8194 (S18E71) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1639UT AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE INTO VIEW. MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS WERE DETECTED DURING THE FLARE. NEW REGION 8195 (S26E75) ALSO ROTATED INTO VIEW, TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REGION 8194. LIMB PROXIMITY PREVENTED A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THESE REGIONS, WHICH ARE SITUATED WITHIN A BAND OF HISTORICALLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES. BOTH REGIONS ARE LIKELY PART OF AN EMERGING REGION COMPLEX. REGION 8193 (S22E28) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH AND PRODUCED A SINGLE C-CLASS SUBFLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGION 8194. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 APR 126
  Predicted   06 APR-08 APR  130/134/136
  90 Day Mean        05 APR 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  007/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 APR to 08 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm02%02%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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