Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 April 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 APR 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8205 (N21W66)
PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY SUBFLARES. THIS REGION DOUBLED
IN WHITE LIGHT AREA SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN
OVERALL COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8208 (N18E57), A SINGLE AXX SPOT
GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 20/1130Z, IS STILL IN PROGRESS. THE EVENT
CONTINUES TO DECLINE AND IS CURRENTLY AT 220 PFU. THE GREATER THAT
100 MEV EVENT ENDED AT 22/0430Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION DURING
THIS EVENT REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 13 DB AT 21/1200Z AND REMAINS IN
PROGRESS AT 3.2DB.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN EXTENSION TO THE SOUTHERN
CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A FAVORABLE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. THE
PROTON EVENT IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO END TOMORROW.
III. Event Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 APR 088 Predicted 23 APR-25 APR 086/084/084 90 Day Mean 22 APR 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR 007/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR 012/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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