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Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 May 1998

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 MAY 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8214 (N26W47) PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS TODAY: AN M2/1B FLARE AT 1116Z AND AN M1/SF AT 1350Z. THIS GROUP PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARE LEVEL ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE PART OF THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE LARGEST SPOT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE. TOTAL SUNSPOT AREA FOR THIS REGION HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL GROWTH PHASE HAS ENDED. REGION 8218 (S22E61) HAS ROTATED MORE CLEARLY INTO VIEW AS A DAO SUNSPOT GROUP AND ALSO PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES INCLUDING A C4/SF AT 0739Z. REGION 8210 (S15W85) IS ROTATING QUIETLY AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM EITHER OF REGION 8210 OR 8214. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY FROM THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PERIOD OF MINOR SUBSTORMING WAS SEEN AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 0900-1330Z. THE PROTON EVENT AT >= 10 MEV THAT STARTED AT 06/0835Z ENDED AT 07/0140Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DISTURBED TOMORROW DUE TO ARRIVAL OF TRANSIENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME EVENTS THAT OCCURRED ON 06 MAY AT 0002Z AND 0829Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TOMORROW, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SUBSTORMING IS LIKELY TO LINGER MIDWAY THROUGH THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
Class M75%65%65%
Class X15%10%05%
Proton15%10%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 MAY 123
  Predicted   08 MAY-10 MAY  120/115/110
  90 Day Mean        07 MAY 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY  045/050-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%25%
Minor storm30%25%10%
Major-severe storm55%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm20%30%10%
Major-severe storm65%25%05%

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.21nT).
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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