Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8214 (N26W47)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS TODAY: AN M2/1B FLARE AT 1116Z AND AN
M1/SF AT 1350Z. THIS GROUP PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARE LEVEL
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE PART OF THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE
LARGEST SPOT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE. TOTAL SUNSPOT AREA FOR
THIS REGION HAS BEEN STEADY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS SUGGESTING THAT
THE INITIAL GROWTH PHASE HAS ENDED. REGION 8218 (S22E61) HAS ROTATED
MORE CLEARLY INTO VIEW AS A DAO SUNSPOT GROUP AND ALSO PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES INCLUDING A C4/SF AT 0739Z. REGION 8210
(S15W85) IS ROTATING QUIETLY AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
EITHER OF REGION 8210 OR 8214. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY FROM THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A PERIOD OF
MINOR SUBSTORMING WAS SEEN AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 0900-1330Z. THE
PROTON EVENT AT >= 10 MEV THAT STARTED AT 06/0835Z ENDED AT
07/0140Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE AT
HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DISTURBED TOMORROW DUE TO ARRIVAL OF TRANSIENT
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME EVENTS THAT OCCURRED ON 06 MAY AT 0002Z
AND 0829Z. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORM INTERVALS AT HIGH
LATITUDES. THE INTENSE PART OF THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TOMORROW, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SUBSTORMING IS LIKELY TO LINGER MIDWAY
THROUGH THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
| Class M | 75% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 MAY 123 Predicted 08 MAY-10 MAY 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 07 MAY 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAY 005/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAY 010/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAY-10 MAY 045/050-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 MAY to 10 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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