Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 May 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 MAY 1998 ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8218 (S20W05) PRODUCED A C1 X-RAY FLARE AND A B6/SF EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS AFTER 12/0830UT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED C1 FLARE AT 12/1846UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8218.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED TO CONSISTENT HIGH LEVELS AFTER 12/1400UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 MAY 112
  Predicted   13 MAY-15 MAY  112/110/108
  90 Day Mean        12 MAY 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY  008/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 MAY to 15 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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