Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 May 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. ALL
THREE ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8218 (S20W70),
8220 (S27W07), AND 8222 (N23W04), HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH C-CLASS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE FROM EITHER REGION 8218 OR 8222.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 MAY 110 Predicted 18 MAY-20 MAY 108/105/100 90 Day Mean 17 MAY 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY 010(ESTIMATED)/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY 010/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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