Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 June 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 JUN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C1 X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED AT 10/0223 AND 10/0402UT RESPECTIVELY. REGIONS 8240 (S28W55) AND 8241 (S24E06) SHOWED SOME MINOR GROWTH IN PLAGE AREA AND SPOT COUNT. THE REST OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS REMAINED STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. LEVELS MAY INCREASE ON 12 JUN WHEN OLD REGION 8226 (N18, L-210) IS DUE TO RETURN. REGION 8226 PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES AND APPEARED TO BE GROWING IN SIZE AND INTENSITY WHEN IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB ON 29 MAY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN THE PERIOD AT HIGH LEVELS AND THEN DECREASED TO BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS AT 10/1000UT. THEY HAVE REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON 12 JUN DUE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 8 JUN.
III. Event Probabilities 11 JUN to 13 JUN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 JUN 112
  Predicted   11 JUN-13 JUN  112/115/120
  90 Day Mean        10 JUN 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUN  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  007/008-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 JUN to 13 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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