Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 July 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUL 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. REGION 8280 (S24E14) REMAINED A MODERATE-SIZED, STABLE H-TYPE AND PRODUCED A COUPLE B-CLASS SUBFLARES. A WEAK MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION PERSISTED WITHIN REGION 8282 (N32E16), BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE WERE OBSERVED. THIS REGION HAS BEEN STABLE FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8282.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS THROUGH 28 JULY, THEN DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS ON THE LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 JUL 119
  Predicted   27 JUL-29 JUL  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        26 JUL 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL  006/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL  007/007-007/010-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, 27 JULY: GOES-9 WILL BE TAKEN OUT OF OPERATIONAL STATUS. GOES-8 WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SPACECRAFT FOR SWO DATA AND PRODUCTS. GOES-10 WILL BE THE SECONDARY SPACECRAFT.

All times in UTC

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