Viewing archive of Friday, 7 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. THE DAY'S LARGEST FLARE WAS A C4/SF AT 0722Z FROM REGION 8293 (S22E09). FIVE OTHER REGIONS CONTRIBUTED SMALL FLARES DURING THE PERIOD, INCLUDING A C2/SF WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT 1431Z FROM REGION 8296 (N16E44). THE DISK NUMBERS SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS, WITH 8293 STILL THE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA. ITS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT POINT BRIGHTENINGS AND ARCH FILAMENTS PERSIST. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED; 8298 (N19E16) AND 8299 (N17E74).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LOW LEVELS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8293.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD, WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 08 AUG to 10 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 AUG 145
  Predicted   08 AUG-10 AUG  150/150/145
  90 Day Mean        07 AUG 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 AUG  043/069
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG  018/039
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG  010/018-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 AUG to 10 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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