Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 August 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 AUG 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8299 (N15E52) PRODUCED A M1/1B AT 09/0847Z AND A M3/2B AT 09/1718Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE ACCURATE WHITE LIGHT AND MAGNETIC ANALYSIS DIFFICULT. IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO DEFINE A DELTA CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME, BUT MIXED POLARITIES APPEAR MORE OBVIOUS IN THIS C-CLASS 14 SPOT GROUP. REGION 8293 (S23W18) REMAINS MODERATELY COMPLEX AND PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 08/1626Z. SOME GROWTH WAS EVIDENT IN WHITE LIGHT AS THIS SPOT GROUP, NUMBERING AS HIGH AS 77 SPOTS, NOW COVERS AN AREA OF 580 MILLIONTHS. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8300 (S29W01) AND 8301 (S20E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8293 AND 8299 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON 12 AUG IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE DSF/CME OBSERVED ON 8 AUG.
III. Event Probabilities 10 AUG to 12 AUG
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 AUG 154
  Predicted   10 AUG-12 AUG  155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        09 AUG 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG  007/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  010/010-012/015-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 AUG to 12 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%40%
Minor storm05%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%50%
Minor storm05%15%35%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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