Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SMALL FLARES CONTINUED IN
REGIONS 8323 (S22W64) AND 8326 (N22 E12). BOTH REGIONS APPEAR TO BE
SHOWING SIGNS OF DECAY. REGION 8329 (N14E11) IS GROWING. NEW REGION
8332 (S27E12) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, PRIMARILY IN
REGIONS 8323 AND 8326. AN ISOLATED ENERGETIC FLARE MAY OCCUR IN
8323.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM 08/00-06Z. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 SEP 154 Predicted 09 SEP-11 SEP 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 08 SEP 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP 005/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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