Viewing archive of Monday, 7 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8323 (S22W50) AND 8326
(N22E25) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL FLARES. BOTH REGIONS REMAIN IN
ABOUT THE SAME CONDITION AS YESTERDAY. REGION 8328 (S17E33) ALSO
GENERATED A FEW SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8323 AND 8326 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
FLARE PRODUCERS. REGION 8323 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR
ENERGETIC FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 SEP 151 Predicted 08 SEP-10 SEP 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 07 SEP 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP 005/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP 005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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