Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 September 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 SEP 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED. MOST FLARES ORIGINATED IN REGIONS 8323 (S22W36) AND 8326
(N22E39). REGION 8323 REMAINS THE LARGEST AND APPARENTLY THE MOST
COMPLEX GROUP ON THE DISK. NEITHER OF THESE REGIONS HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. NEW REGIONS 8330 (S20E68) AND 8331
(N25E74) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 8323 AND 8326.
REGION 8323 APPEARS CAPABLE OF ENERGETIC FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE TO HIGH. A MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX (ABOUT 1 PFU) OCCURRED EARLY IN THE
DAY. THE SOURCE OF THE PROTONS WAS NOT IMMEDIATELY CLEAR.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 07 SEP to 09 SEP
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 SEP 165 Predicted 07 SEP-09 SEP 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 06 SEP 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 SEP to 09 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
SodankyläMurmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
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