Viewing archive of Friday, 2 October 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY MINOR B-CLASS ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED. REGION 8350 (N20E67) IS A MODERATE SIZE CLASS E GROUP WITH A BIPOLAR MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. OTHER REGIONS WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY VERY LOW. REGION 8350 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE VICINITY OF THE EARTH. A RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEED, TOTAL FIELD, AND TEMPERATURE OCCURRED AROUND 02/0700Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 30 SEP CONTINUED TO DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND FELL BELOW 10 PFU AT 02/0830Z. THE POLAR CAP ABSORPTION EVENT WAS DECLARED OVER AT 02/0300Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR 03-04 OCT. PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSIDE ON 05 OCT WHEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 OCT 113
  Predicted   03 OCT-05 OCT  111/110/112
  90 Day Mean        02 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT  017/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT  018/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT  020/030-015/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 OCT to 05 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%15%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%15%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

All times in UTC

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