Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED B- AND
C-CLASS SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED. MINOR GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION
8358 (N15W12) AND NEW REGION 8360 (S11W28).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS WERE DETECTED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE
STATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDE REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 OCT to 17 OCT
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 OCT 119 Predicted 15 OCT-17 OCT 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 14 OCT 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT 008/005-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 OCT to 17 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
SodankyläReykjavik
Tromsø
Kiruna
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