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Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 October 1998

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

***************CORRECTED COPY***************** SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, BASED ON A SINGLE C2/SF X-RAY EVENT FROM REGION 8366 (S12W54). NEW REGIONS 8368 (N26W24), 8369 (N17E59), AND 8370 (S31W67), WERE NUMBERED TODAY. TWO PROMINENCES ARE CURRENTLY ACTIVE ON THE EAST LIMB, ONE AT N39 WITH AN EXTENT OF 0.07RV, AND THE OTHER AT S20 WITH AN EXTENT OF 0.09RV. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS HAS BEEN QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY PROBABLE FROM REGION 8369.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING THE INTERVAL 25/0300-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECRON FLUX CONTINUES IN THE HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 26 OCT to 28 OCT
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 OCT 108
  Predicted   26 OCT-28 OCT  110/110/112
  90 Day Mean        25 OCT   131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 OCT  011/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 OCT  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 OCT-28 OCT  010/010-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 OCT to 28 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 19:52 UTC
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (549.7 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.78nT), the direction is moderately South (-10.92nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C7.81

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