Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 October 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 OCT 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8365 (S26W72) GENERATED A SINGLE C1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 24/0454Z. THE TWO OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8366 (S11W43) AND 8367 (N17W42), WERE QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8365 LIKELY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING THE INTERVAL 24/0300-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 OCT 111
  Predicted   25 OCT-27 OCT  110/110/112
  90 Day Mean        24 OCT   131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT  008/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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