Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 October 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 OCT 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8365 (S26W72) GENERATED
A SINGLE C1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 24/0454Z. THE TWO OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8366 (S11W43) AND 8367 (N17W42), WERE QUIET AND
UNREMARKABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8365 LIKELY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED DURING
THE INTERVAL 24/0300-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
REMAINED HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 OCT 111 Predicted 25 OCT-27 OCT 110/110/112 90 Day Mean 24 OCT 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 OCT 008/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 OCT 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 OCT-27 OCT 010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 OCT to 27 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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