Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 November 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8375 (N18W21) PRODUCED THREE M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS TODAY, M1/1B AT 05/1336, AN M3 AT 1825, AND AN M8/2B AT 1955UT. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8381 (N22E15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS WERE BRIEFLY AT MODERATE LEVELS NEAR 05/1500UT, AND HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS PERIOD. THE THIRD DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AS A CME (ERUPTED ON 04/0418UT) SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 06 NOV to 08 NOV
Class M75%75%75%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton40%50%50%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 NOV 153
  Predicted   06 NOV-08 NOV  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        05 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV  015/012-015/024-030/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 NOV to 08 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm10%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

All times in UTC

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