Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 November 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 NOV 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8375 (N18W21) PRODUCED
THREE M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS TODAY, M1/1B AT 05/1336, AN M3 AT 1825,
AND AN M8/2B AT 1955UT. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8381 (N22E15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRONS
WERE BRIEFLY AT MODERATE LEVELS NEAR 05/1500UT, AND HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS
PERIOD. THE THIRD DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM AS A
CME (ERUPTED ON 04/0418UT) SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 06 NOV to 08 NOV
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 NOV 153 Predicted 06 NOV-08 NOV 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 05 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 NOV 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 NOV-08 NOV 015/012-015/024-030/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 NOV to 08 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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