Viewing archive of Friday, 6 November 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE WITH A 1B/M1 FLARE FROM REGION 8375 (N18W35) AT 1511UT. THERE WAS AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE ENERGETIC PROTON LEVEL OF GT 10 MEV, BUT DENSITIES DID NOT PASS THE THRESHOLD OF 10 SFU.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO MINOR STORM. NEAR THE START OF THE UT DAY A SOLAR WIND STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARTIAL HALO REPORTED ON 2 NOV ARRIVED AT EARTH AND CAUSED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORM STRENGTH. ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NASA GODDARD REPORTED A FULL HALO CME WHICH OCCURRED AT 05/1945UT. THIS IS THE FOURTH REPORTED CME IN THREE DAYS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OF THIS PERIOD. THE REMAINING DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM DUE TO A REPORTED FULL-HALO CME ON 04/0418UT AND 05/0241.
III. Event Probabilities 07 NOV to 09 NOV
Class M75%75%75%
Class X50%50%50%
Proton50%50%50%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 NOV 141
  Predicted   07 NOV-09 NOV  145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        06 NOV 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 NOV  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 NOV  018/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 NOV-09 NOV  015/025-040/035-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 NOV to 09 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

All times in UTC

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