Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 November 1998

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 NOV 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8395 (N20E33) PRODUCED A X3/3N AT 28/0552Z. THIS EVENT HAD TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURST INCLUDING 3600 SFU'S AT 2695 MHZ. A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. OBSERVATORIES REPORTED SOME SPOT GROWTH PRIOR TO THE FLARE. REGION 8395 IS NOW A MODERATELY COMPLEX F-TYPE GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SHORTLY AFTER THE X3/3N, BUT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STABLE SINCE 28/1400Z. REGION 8393 (S18E12) DISPLAYED A BIT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8395 HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE FIELD OF NEAR FLARE INTENSITY PLAGE SINCE THE X-FLARE TODAY. FREQUENT SUBFLARES, FLUCTUATIONS, AND SURGES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8393 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH DAY 1. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE M1/2N FLARE EARLY ON THE 27TH MAY CAUSE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY 2 AND 3.

III. Event Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC

Class M	70%	70%	70%
Class X	20%	20%	20%
Proton	20%	20%	20%
PCAF	YELLOW

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       28 NOV 165
  Predicted   29 NOV-01 DEC  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        28 NOV 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  005/010-015/018-012/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 NOV to 01 DEC

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	30%	30%
Minor storm	01%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	35%	35%
Minor storm	01%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 22:29 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi
Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (615 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (18.69nT), the direction is North (11.81nT).

Latest news

Tuesday, 15 April 2025

CME arrival, G3 storm watch

Friday, 28 March 2025

X1.1 solar flare

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

2025/04/12-13 Filament CMEs 2025/04/16 G3 Watch 163 AR4062 25 CME from Filament eruption 4-13 circa 7utc 47 May storm revisited 7 Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2259

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro