Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 December 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 DEC 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C5 AT 24/0054Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C6/SF AT 24/0127Z FROM REGION
8416 (N20E20). REGION 8421 (N27E64) PRODUCED A M1/SF AT 24/1145Z. A
NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8422 (S23E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 DEC to 27 DEC
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 DEC 139 Predicted 25 DEC-27 DEC 145/150/154 90 Day Mean 24 DEC 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC 003/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC 005/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC 005/009-005/009-005/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 DEC to 27 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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