Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG-DURATION
M1/SF FLARE PEAKING AT 14/1045UT IN REGION 8457 (N15W03). THIS
REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. C-CLASS ACTIVITY ALSO
OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N23W22), 8458 (S22E03), AND 8462 (N20E07).
RAPID EMERGENCE OF NEW FLUX IS OCCURRING IN REGION 8459 (S30W30), AN
AREA WHICH HAD BEEN SPOTLESS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST PROBABLE FLARE PRODUCERS ARE REGIONS 8456,
8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGION 8459 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO FLARE IF
EMERGENCE CONTINUES. REGIONS 8457 AND 8462 HAVE THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 FEB 205 Predicted 15 FEB-17 FEB 210/215/215 90 Day Mean 14 FEB 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 FEB to 17 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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