Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 February 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO M-CLASS FLARES IN REGIONS 8462 (N18W20) AND 8458 (S22W23). THE FLARE IN 8458 WAS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT, BEING A LONG-DURATION M3/SF AT 16/0312UT WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND A 560 SFU TENFLARE. THESE TWO REGIONS ALSO PRODUCED A NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS 8466 (S23E59) AND 8467 (N16E65) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8457, 8458, 8462, AND 8464. REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462 REMAIN THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT WE ARE NO LONGER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM MENTIONED YESTERDAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
Class M50%40%30%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 FEB 192
  Predicted   17 FEB-19 FEB  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        16 FEB 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  005/006-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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