Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 February 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 FEB 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. CURRENTLY THERE ARE ONLY
THREE SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK. A NEW REGION, 8471 (N28E55),
EMERGED AS A 4 SPOT DAO BETA GROUP. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY
QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT AROUND
23/1000UT AND REMAINED ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 24 FEB to 26 FEB
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 FEB 127 Predicted 24 FEB-26 FEB 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 23 FEB 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 FEB 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 FEB 015/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 FEB-26 FEB 010/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 FEB to 26 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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