Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 February 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 FEB 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8470 (S23E31) PRODUCED A C1/SF EVENT AT 25/1800Z. A COUPLE OTHER MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED EARLIER DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. SUBFLARING WAS OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 8471 (N30E25) AND 8472 (N30E48). REGIONS 8471 AND 8472 SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FROM 25/0300 TO 0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE SLOWLY AND ENTERED MODERATE LEVELS AROUND 25/1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 FEB to 28 FEB
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 FEB 120
  Predicted   26 FEB-28 FEB  120/118/115
  90 Day Mean        25 FEB 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB  009/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 FEB to 28 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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