Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 March 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAR 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8487
(N17E25) DISPLAYED NO REMARKABLE CHANGES IN SIZE OR COMPLEXITY, BUT
PRODUCED TWO LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES: AN M2/1N AT 14/0127Z AND AN
M1/SF AT 14 /1010Z. MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED BOTH
FLARES. REGION 8485 (N23W09) REMAINED A MODERATELY-LARGE SUNSPOT
GROUP WITH MIXED POLARITIES. IT SHOWED AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY AFTER 14/0000Z AND PRODUCED A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES, NONE
OF WHICH HAD SIGNIFICANT RADIO EMISSION. NEW REGION 8488 (S27E40)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED FROM QUIET TO QUIET TO ACTIVE
LEVELS BEGINNING AROUND 14/0900Z IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN THE SOLAR WIND FLOW (AS MEASURED BY THE ACE SPACECRAFT). CHANGES
INCLUDED A VELOCITY INCREASE FROM 380 - 640 KM/SEC AND INCREASED IMF
BZ VARIABILITY WITH MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY DEFLECTIONS TO MINUS 10 NT
(GSM).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY. THE
GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH HIGH
LEVELS SOMETIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAR to 17 MAR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 MAR 150 Predicted 15 MAR-17 MAR 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 14 MAR 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR 015/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR 015/015-015/012-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAR to 17 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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