Viewing archive of Monday, 14 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUN 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SF FLARE FROM
REGION 8578 (N21W73) OCCURRED AT 13/2345Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS EVENTS WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE SOLAR DISK.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUN to 17 JUN
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 JUN 168 Predicted 15 JUN-17 JUN 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 14 JUN 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUN 007/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUN 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUN-17 JUN 005/005-005/010-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUN to 17 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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