Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8602 (N18W07) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF FLARE AT 29/0510Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AND MINOR DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8611 (S25E33) CONTINUED A PERIOD OF GRADUAL GROWTH THAT BEGAN WITH ITS EMERGENCE ON 27 JUNE. IT PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M3/1N PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 29/0821Z ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8603 (S15E04) PRODUCED THE PERIOD'S LAST M-CLASS FLARE, AN M1/1N AT 29/1913Z WITH MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS. REGION 8598 (N23W38) SHOWED SLOW DECAY, BUT RETAINED MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 JUN 191
  Predicted   30 JUN-02 JUL  185/185/180
  90 Day Mean        29 JUN 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN  022/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL  010/012-012/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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