Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 June 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JUN 1999
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8603
(S14W11) SHOWED MINOR GROWTH AND A SLIGHT MIXING OF POLARITIES. IT
PRODUCED TWO IMPULSIVE M-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
WAS AN M1/1B AT 30/1130Z ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION AND A FAINT HALO-CME. THE SECOND WAS AN M2/2B
PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 30/1808Z ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR DISCRETE
RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8611 (S26E21) CONTINUED TO GROW GRADUALLY AND
PRODUCED AN M2/1N FLARE AT 30/0446Z WITH MINOR DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION. THE FINAL M-CLASS FLARE OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M1/SF AT
30/2012Z FROM REGION 8598 (N24W49) WITH MODERATE DISCRETE RADIO
EMISSION. REGION 8598 DISPLAYED GRADUAL DECAY PRIOR TO THE FLARE.
REGION 8602 (N18W20) SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASES IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE
AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, NONE
OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT X-RAY EMISSION. BRIGHT
SURGING WAS SEEN NEAR NE18 AROUND 30/1230Z AND MAY PORTEND THE
RETURN OF OLD REGION 8569 (N19, L=189), WHICH WAS OF MODERATE SIZE
AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DURING ITS PREVIOUS ROTATION. NEW REGION
8613 (N18E67) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED, LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
FOR ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO THE HALO-CME MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 JUL to 03 JUL
Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 JUN 210
Predicted 01 JUL-03 JUL 215/215/215
90 Day Mean 30 JUN 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JUN 009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JUN 006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 JUL-03 JUL 007/012-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 JUL to 03 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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