Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 June 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUN 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8562 (S15W18) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 03/0644UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES. GROWTH IN THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE STABILIZING. IT IS NOW A D-TYPE GROUP WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 8567 (S14W04) IS EMERGING ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. REGION 8562 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCER.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS ACTIVE TO QUIET. A SMALL SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT L1 AT ABOUT 02/2035UT. ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOLLOWED DURING THE 02/21-24UT AND 03/00-03UT PERIODS. ACTIVITY LEVELS HAVE BEEN QUIET SINCE THAT TIME. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED: START 02/0245UT, MAXIMUM OF 48 PFU AT 02/1010UT, AND END 03/1410UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 JUN 174
  Predicted   04 JUN-06 JUN  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        03 JUN 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN  005/008-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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