Viewing archive of Monday, 5 July 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8614 (N18E14) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C2/SF FLARE AT 05/0446Z. REGION 8611 (S26W45) HAD THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD WITH A M1/1F AT 05/1848Z. REGIONS 8614 AND 8611 WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A C9 AT 04/2328Z OCCURRED WHICH WAS NOT CORRELATED OPTICALLY. A 13 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 04/0917-2240Z AT N12E36.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 JUL 174
  Predicted   06 JUL-08 JUL  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        05 JUL 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL  000/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL  005/014-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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