Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 July 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO TWO C-CLASS EVENTS. REGIONS 8625 (S18W40), 8627 (S14W20), AND 8634 (S19E30) ALL PRODUCED MINOR ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE MOSTLY QUIET. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED; 8635 (N42W64).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW. ACTIVITY MAY START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORMER ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL 0900UT AND THEN WAS QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 JUL 130
  Predicted   16 JUL-18 JUL  130/140/145
  90 Day Mean        15 JUL 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUL to 18 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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