Viewing archive of Monday, 9 August 1999
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 AUG 1999IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C4/1F LONG DURATION EVENT FROM REGION 8657 (S30W22) AT
09/0258Z. A FAINT HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS
EVENT. REGION 8662 (S16E21), THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK,
DOUBLED IN SIZE, NOW AN E-TYPE REGION MEASURING OVER 230 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS AND MINOR SUBFLARES WERE
OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. THE PERIOD ENDED WITH AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. REMAINING REGIONS
WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8657 AND 8662 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD BZ DOMINATED MOST OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING
ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 AUG to 12 AUG
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 AUG 138 Predicted 10 AUG-12 AUG 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 09 AUG 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG 007/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG 013/028 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG 008/015-008/008-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 AUG to 12 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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