Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 July 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Jul 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 JUL 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2.9 AT 13/0546UT. THERE ARE 12 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, MOST ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, ALL APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING. THE FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N40E60 AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST LIMB DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/0800UT AND 13/1800UT. THIS EVENT WAS PROBABLY THE SOURCE OF THE CME OBSERVED BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT AROUND 13/1200UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF RECENT SOLAR EVENTS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
Class M25%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 JUL 144
  Predicted   14 JUL-16 JUL  142/140/135
  90 Day Mean        13 JUL 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  005/005-005/005-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 JUL to 16 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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