Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 August 1999

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1999 Aug 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 AUG 1999

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8674 (S24E11) PRODUCED AN M3/1N EVENT AT 25/0136Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AND A 310 SFU 10CM RADIO BURST. THE TYPE II HAD AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 500 KM/S. REGION 8674 ALSO PRODUCED A C6/SF AT 25/1504Z. SEVERAL OTHER OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8676 (N26E61) DISPLAYED SLIGHT GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY. NEW REGIONS 8677 (N07E71) AND REGION 8678 (N16W40) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8674 IS STILL THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 26 AUG to 28 AUG
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 AUG 208
  Predicted   26 AUG-28 AUG  215/220/220
  90 Day Mean        25 AUG 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 AUG  018/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 AUG to 28 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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