Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8848 (S09E27) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS EVENT: A C2/SF AT 1823Z. REGION 8841 (S30W47), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AT 100 MILLIONTHS, WAS QUIET AND STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8845 (S16E48) APPEARED TO BE GROWING YESTERDAY AND PRODUCED A B-CLASS EVENT, BUT HAS DEVELOPED TO A VERY STABLE AND QUIET H-TYPE CONFIGURATION. TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY: 8850 (S18E25) AND 8851 (N27E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CONTINUATION OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MOST OF THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS.
III. Event Probabilities 31 JAN to 02 FEB
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 JAN 133
  Predicted   31 JAN-02 FEB  135/137/137
  90 Day Mean        30 JAN 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JAN  022/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JAN  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JAN-02 FEB  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 JAN to 02 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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