Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED. REGION 8891 (S15E60) IS A LARGE REGION OF OVER 700 MILLIONTHS AREA BUT EXHIBITS A BIPOLAR MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8882 (S16E08) SHOWED SOME MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES AND A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION MAY EXIST HERE. REGION 8889 (N20E46) IS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP WITH A LARGE TRAILING FILAMENT THAT WAS QUITE ACTIVE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. A LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED BETWEEN 26/1036-1222Z. SOHO DATA INDICATE THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8882, 8889, AND 8891. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LONG DURATION C OR M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8889 SHOULD THE NEARBY FILAMENT ERUPT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. THIS CHANCE WOULD BECOME GREATER SHOULD REGIONS 8882 AND 8891 BEGIN TO EVOLVE QUICKLY AND DEVELOP GREATER MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECLINE BUT ENDED THE PERIOD STILL ELEVATED NEAR 600 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 27 FEB. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 28-29 FEB. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 27 FEB to 29 FEB
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 FEB 215
  Predicted   27 FEB-29 FEB  217/219/220
  90 Day Mean        26 FEB 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 FEB  014/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 FEB  012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 FEB-29 FEB  012/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 FEB to 29 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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