Viewing archive of Monday, 31 January 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 JAN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. MINOR GROWTH OCCURRED WITHIN REGIONS 8848 (S09E13) AND 8851 (N27E29), BUT BOTH REMAINED SMALL AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE UNREMARKABLE. NEW REGION 8852 (N10E14) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY VARIED BETWEEN QUIET AND UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 FEB to 03 FEB
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 JAN 139
  Predicted   01 FEB-03 FEB  140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        31 JAN 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JAN  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JAN  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 FEB-03 FEB  012/010-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 FEB to 03 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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