Viewing archive of Friday, 4 February 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 FEB 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M3/SF OCCURRED AT 04/0919Z IN REGION 8858 (N26E64). FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE MAJORITY ORIGINATING IN REGION 8858. AN IMPRESSIVE C7/1F FLARE AND ASSOCIATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION AT 04/1950Z. NEW REGION 8860 (N26E06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8858 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO UNSETTLED THROUGH DAY ONE. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 FEB 167
  Predicted   05 FEB-07 FEB  170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        04 FEB 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB  007/010-012/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 FEB to 07 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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