Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 February 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 FEB 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED WITH THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1N FROM REGION 8869
(S20W61). REGIONS 8875 (S22W13) AND 8869 BOTH DISPLAYED SOME GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 41 SUNSPOTS. NEW REGION 8880
(S08W69) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY A BETA GROUP WITH 3
SPOTS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 8869.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO A FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED
BY AN EVENT ON 17 FEBRUARY. THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 FEB 153 Predicted 21 FEB-23 FEB 150/145/135 90 Day Mean 20 FEB 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB 030/050-015/030-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 FEB to 23 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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