Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 18 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S17W62)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 18/2102UT. THIS ACTIVE REGION CONTINUES TO
DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8910 (N11W10) AND 8913
(S16E17) ARE GROWING AND HAVE BOTH PRODUCED SMALL FLARES. NEW REGION
8917 (N20E18) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE PROBABLE IN REGIONS 8906, 8910, AND
8913. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8906 AND
8910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 19 MAR to 21 MAR
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 MAR 195 Predicted 19 MAR-21 MAR 198/200/200 90 Day Mean 18 MAR 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAR 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAR 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAR-21 MAR 005/008-005/008-010/013
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 MAR to 21 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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