Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAR 2000
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGIONS 8906 (S17W74) AND
8910 (N12W23) PRODUCED THE BRUNT OF THE DAY'S ACTIVITY. 8906 HAD AN
M3/1N TENFLARE AT 18/2357Z, AND AN M1/1F TENFLARE AT 1756Z, AS WELL
AS OTHER SMALLER EVENTS. THE REGION IS NEARING WEST LIMB, BUT
CLEARLY REMAINS POTENT. REGION 8910 PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 18/2333Z,
AND OTHER LESSER-SIZED EVENTS. THIS REGION IS THE MOST OMINOUS ON
THE VISIBLE DISK, MEASURING NEARLY 600 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT
AREA, 48 SPOTS, AND A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY. OTHER
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY OCCURRING WERE: A C4/1F FLARE WITH TYPE II AT
18/2154Z FROM REGION 8909 (S29E25), AN UNOBSERVED C5 X-RAY EVENT
WITH TYPE II AT 0202Z, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 29 DEGREE-LONG
FILAMENT CENTERED NEAR S69W04 IN THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. TWO NEW
REGIONS, 8918 (N32W14) AND 8919 (S22E58) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. REGIONS 8906 AND 8910 SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF X-CLASS
ACTIVITY SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCUR IN REGION 8910.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
Class M | 70% | 70% | 50% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
PCAF | GREEN
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 MAR 208
Predicted 20 MAR-22 MAR 215/220/230
90 Day Mean 19 MAR 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR 006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR 008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR 005/008-010/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAR to 22 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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