Viewing archive of Monday, 20 March 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 080 Issued at 2200Z on 20 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. REGION 8910 (N13W35) PRODUCED AN M2/2B FLARE AT 1644Z. THE REGION HAD NUMEROUS SMALLER EVENTS AS IT REMAINED LARGE (680 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT) AND COMPLEX (BETA-GAMMA DELTA). EARLIER IN THE DAY, AN M2/LIMB FLARE WITH TYPES II AND IV SWEEP OCCURRED AT 0834Z, FROM AN AREA NEAR S18E90. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8921 (S15E71) IS NEARBY, BUT LIMB PROXIMITY PROHIBITS AN UNAMBIGUOUS DETERMINATION OF THE SOURCE OF THAT ACTIVITY. SOHO DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE ACTIVE REGIONS COMING INTO VIEW THERE. ELSEWHERE, A SECOND NEW REGION, 8920 (N24E55), WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. REGION 8910 IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS, WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
Class M70%50%50%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton15%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 MAR 210
  Predicted   21 MAR-23 MAR  215/220/225
  90 Day Mean        20 MAR 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR  010/008-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 MAR to 23 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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