Viewing archive of Friday, 17 March 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W49) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 17/1125UT. FURTHER DECAY AND MAGNETIC SIMPLIFICATION IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E05) CONTINUED TO GROW SLOWLY AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE A C6/1F AT 16/2215UT. NEW REGIONS 8915 (N23E62) AND 8916 (N12E74) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY IN REGIONS 8906 AND 8910. A SMALL CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE REMAINS IN REGION 8906.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAR to 20 MAR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 MAR 192
  Predicted   18 MAR-20 MAR  180/180/185
  90 Day Mean        17 MAR 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  005/008-005/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAR to 20 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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