Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 March 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 MAR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. AN M1/1F
FLARE OCCURRED AT 07/1607UT FROM AN AS YET UNNUMBERED REGION
ROTATING INTO VIEW NEAR SE22. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 OCCURRED
AT 07/1950UT. MINOR SPOT DEVELOPMENT WAS REPORTED WITHIN REGION 8900
(S16W26), WHICH CONTINUED TO DISPLAY A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER, THE REGION WAS STABLE DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE
REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW REGION 8903 WAS ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. HOWEVER, BRIEF
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 08 MAR to 10 MAR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 MAR 222 Predicted 08 MAR-10 MAR 220/215/200 90 Day Mean 07 MAR 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAR 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAR 015/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAR-10 MAR 008/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 MAR to 10 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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