Viewing archive of Monday, 17 April 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 17 APR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8955 (S22W06) PRODUCED THE TWO LARGEST EVENTS OF THE PERIOD - A C2/1F AT 17/0028UT AND A C3/1N AT 17/1734UT. THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED, EXHIBITING LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND NOW COVERS 320 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO CHANGE OR ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING ELEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS. NEW REGION 8965 (S16E66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8955 STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH AN ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIOD BETWEEN 17/06 - 09UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 APR 158
  Predicted   18 APR-20 APR  160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        17 APR 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 APR  016/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 APR  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 APR-20 APR  012/015-012/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 APR to 20 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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