Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 April 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 APR 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
FROM A VARIETY OF ACTIVE REGIONS, INCLUDING 8955 (S21W71), 8963
(N17W44), 8967 (N22E23), 8970 (S15E56), 8971 (N17E54), AND 8972
(N33W10). REGION 8963, A SMALL SLOWLY DECAYING SUNSPOT GROUP, WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE. REGION 8970 IS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE
DISK BUT APPEARS MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE. NEW REGION 8973 (N20W12)
EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. REGIONS 8963,
8970, 8971, AND 8972 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF ENERGETIC
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Proton | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 APR 202 Predicted 23 APR-25 APR 210/215/220 90 Day Mean 22 APR 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR 005/005-005/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 APR to 25 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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