Viewing archive of Monday, 18 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9269 (N11W06) produced
today's largest flare, a C7/Sf at 1111Z. The event was associated
with a relatively slow, full-halo coronal mass ejection as observed
by LASCO imagery. An additional CME occurred, beginning with the
lift-off of a portion of the southern polar crown filament (near
S50E01) at 1824Z. The remainder of today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class events from a variety of regions, including Region
9278 (N09E51) which has rotated more clearly into view as a D-type
sunspot group. New Region 9279 (S11E62) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from any of regions 9264 (S25W36), 9267 (N08W57), 9276 (S12W85), or
9278 (N09E51).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. An increase
to active, with a possibility for minor storm levels, is expected on
the third day, in response to today's halo CME event.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 198 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 195/195/190 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 010/010-010/010-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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